The full weight of Donald Trump's election as the President of the United States is now being felt.Unlike his predecessors, he seems determined to walk the talk of his campaign. Expectations that he would become more 'presidential' and moderate his views have been belied.
Consequences
The flaws, both moral and practical, in his policies are also becoming apparent.
Take
the decision to block Muslim travelers from Iraq and Iran. Now Iraq is
the country that the US willfully devastated through a war, and now it
is refusing to deal with its human consequences.
As
for Iran, Mr Trump may not know it, that in the Islamic world there is
probably no other country whose middle class is more pro-American than
the Iranians.
And the irony is that the
Saudis, who are responsible for funding terrorism all over the place
and whose nationals allegedly carried out the horrific 9/11 attack are
not on the Trump exclusion list.
Indeed, there is no record of American citizens being killed by nationals of Yemen, Syria, Somalia or Sudan either.
Another
strange policy measure has been to remove the Director National
Intelligence and the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff from the National
Security Council.
Instead, he has included his right-wing strategic adviser Stepen Bannon, a former media and financial executive, to the NSC.
The
American NSC, as its name suggests, is the principal adviser to the
President on foreign policy and security and its principal job is to
coordinate the work of other departments.
The
removal of two key staffers is bound to affect the institutional
capacity of the body. More important, it will give freer rein to
controversial NSA chief Mike Flynn.
The
hapless travelers who have been blocked from the US, from their loved
ones, families and jobs, have only one alternative - turn to the courts.
But
it will not be plain sailing for other Trump policies, principally, his
effort to upend the world trading order and bottle up China in the
mainland.
Trade war
Recall,
earlier this month, the US secretary of state designate Rex Tillerson
declared that America would 'send China a clear signal that, first, the
island building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is
not going to be allowed.'
In effect,
the US would blockade China from accessing the military bases they have
constructed on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross island in the
Spratlys chain.
The tribunal that
heard the Philippines claim against China did not make any judgment on
who owns the features. So any effort by the US to blockade China would
constitute an act of war.
The Chinese
have in the past couple of years strengthened their positions on the
islands and built hangars and point air defence systems.
So
far, the US policy had been to carry out Freedom of Navigation
Operational Patrols. But last year, the US did privately warn China not
to begin any reclamation or construction on Scarborough Shoal, an area
which even the arbitral tribunal clearly said was within the Exclusive
Economic Zone of the Philippines.
But
the Obama policy was criticised for being ineffective. It remains to be
seen what 'avatar' of Trump we will see in the region - the hawk or the
deal maker.
The issue of trade, of
course, is paramount in the relationship between the US and China and
the world is bracing for a possible trade war which will damage not only
the US and China but could have a wider fallout.
Rough ride
Companies in South-east Asia who are linked with the US and China through supply chains will also be affected.
A
slow-down in Chinese exports would lead to a reduction in their import
of raw materials from countries in South-east Asia, Australia and
Africa.
Of course, any effort by the US
to hike tariffs would be challenged by China in the WTO and it is
possible that this could actually be resolved by a deal between the US
and China.
But with Trump you never know.
In
all this, India is a bit player. We will not be directly affected by
the trade war, though we need to worry about pressure on IPR issues
relating to pharmaceuticals, and of course, to business process
outsourcing.
Notwithstanding
the nice readout of the Trump phone conversation with Modi, we need to
watch out because of the nature of the new administration which seems to
believe that it alone has the answer to everything, and in any case, no
one else has problems, only the United States.
If
we are prepared to play the role of a supine partner it s okay, but if
India wants to stand up to the US on issues that matter to it and pursue
its own national interest, we should be prepared for a rough ride.
So far, India and the US had steadily developed a congruence of interests in a range of areas, today, all bets are off.
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