The Modi
government’s recent policy towards Pakistan - which has included a
combination of surgical strikes, naming and shaming Islamabad, and using
international events to isolate and sanction it - has been described as
a "game changer".
Certainly
the government has expended a vast deal of diplomatic capital in trying
to get Pakistan to modify its behavior and principally end the
sanctuary and support it offers to a slew of anti-India and
anti-Afghanistan jihadis.
Limitations
However, the game will have changed, only after Islamabad does what's needed.
As of now there are no indications that it will do so.
In other words, it would be wise to declare victory when victory indeed occurs, not prematurely.
The limitation of New Delhi’s policies was apparent in the recent BRICS summit.
Host India’s primary focus was to get this powerful grouping to chastise Pakistan.
Few
will deny that despite paragraphs generally criticising terrorism, the
body failed to depict Pakistan as that unique fountainhead of global
terrorism that India had been talking about.
Pakistan has brought a lot of this on its own head.
Prime Minister Modi had put out a lot of capital in trying to befriend his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif.
However, the attack on Pathankot, shortly after his surprise descent in Islamabad, forced Modi to shift to a tough line.
Now,
following the Uri attack, the government has hardened that line into a
new policy that indicates that New Delhi will not simply seek to shield
its territory, but retaliate against any attack whose footprints lead to
Pakistan.
The
insistent question confronting Prime Ministers since Chandrashekhar,
who was the PM when J&K blew up in 1990, even as Punjab was burning,
is: 'Should we seek to “manage” Pakistan, or to change it'.
Many
Indian liberals, who say that our common culture unites South Asia,
believe that once the baleful influence of the military is removed,
Pakistan will be like any other country in the region.
On
the other hand, hard-headed pragmatists say that this may or may not
happen but anyway - A: It is not the responsibility of India to bring it
change Pakistan and - B: It requires so much time and effort that it
will distract New Delhi from its other larger economic and diplomatic
goals.
Leaders stand for a group photo
wearing traditional Indian vests during a informal dinner at the start
of the BRICS Summit at the Taj Exotica Hotel
Policy
So
Indian policy alternates between reaching out to the civilian
governments and the business community, to blocking and, on occasion,
hitting back at the military- backed jihadis who attack India.
We
are now at a unique conjuncture where a government, which can hardly be
called liberal, is moving along the path of trying to change Pakistan.
It is seeking to do this through tough love - calling for the international community to isolate and sanction Islamabad.
The problem is that the international community is simply not buying this. There are various reasons for this.
Firstly,
is the infirmity in New Delhi’s case in refusing to recognise that it
has a problem in Jammu and Kashmir and it needs to do something about
it, other than blaming Pakistan.
Secondly,
many recognise that the repeated references to terrorism by Modi are
also occasioned by domestic electoral considerations, especially to
coming Uttar Pradesh elections.
Thirdly,
Islamabad remains an important player in the Afghanistan game, an issue
of considerable interest to the United States, China and Russia.
Rhetoric
The
recent effort to restart the Taliban-Afghan government talks in Doha is
an indicator that Pakistan remains the key player there.
Finally, India offers little or nothing to Beijing to moderate, leave alone abandon, support to Islamabad.
At least it has given Russia a multi-billion dollar arms deal, and even then, Moscow has been grudging with its support.
International
relations are a ruthless affair where nations pursue their interests
and modify their behaviour when threatened with the stick, or offered
some carrots.
All
India has on offer to China is high rhetoric and a pathetic boycott of
Chinese firecrackers, and yet it wants Beijing to fall in line behind
India in South Asia.
The
simple fact that it is we who need something from China, not the other
way round, hasn’t sunk into the minds of the powers that be and their
supporters.
It is certainly true that India should play hardball in international politics.
But
to do so you also need the wherewithal, not just in terms of dollars
which are important, or guns to export, but also in a clear headed
understanding of where our national interests lie, how to further them
and how not to allow any considerations, especially domestic political
ones, like a desire to win elections to over-ride them.
Mail Today October 23, 2016
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